Pounds of Beef Consumed Per Person Year

Posted past David Widmar on April 5, 2021

During the pinnacle of incertitude well-nigh the pandemic and economical shutdown, the U.Southward. meat sector institute itself in the center of several COVID-related disruptions.

On the demand side, consumers rushed to the grocery stores, initially emptying the shelves, while restaurant action slumped and summer BBQs were in limbo. Even so, the supply-side challenges proved to be even more than challenging throughout the spring and summer.

With some of the doubt settling, this week's post steps back to review U.S. meat consumption trends and the forecasts for 2020 and 2021.

U.South. Meat Consumption, 1970 – 2020

Throughout this post, we discuss per capita meat consumption. It is important to note the USDA reports these data as per capita meat disappearance. This measure is the residual of product, first and catastrophe inventories, import, and export data.

In other words, the USDA does not explicitly measure consumption simply offers a proxy measure out that is essentially consumption. When discussing consumption, we are truly reporting the USDA's measure of meat disappearances. Furthermore, a subtract (or increase) in consumption is not a change in demand.

Figure 1 shows the per capita consumption of full carmine meat and poultry since 1970. Later peaking at well-nigh 222 pounds in 2017, total meat consumption began to slump during the Corking Recession and eventually striking a low of 202 pounds in 2014. Starting time in 2015, meat consumption trended higher and is forecasted at 225 pounds in 2020. Looking ahead, total consumption is expected to slump slightly into 2021 (224.8 in 2021 compared to 225.1 in 2020).

Figure one. Per Capita U.S. Total Red Meat and Poultry Consumption, 1970 – 2021f. Data Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

U.S. Beefiness Consumption – A Long Reject, With A Recent Upturn

Beyond the full consumption trends, it's important to recognize each meat has its own set of opportunities, challenges, and trends. Figure 2 shows U.S. beef consumption, which has been a long story of decline.

In the 1970s and early 1980s, per capita consumption was effectually 80 lbs. Consumption slipped but stayed around 65 pounds throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. After the Neat Recession, consumption slipped, again, to a low of 54 pounds.

For 2020, consumption was more than 58 pounds. On the one manus, the upturn since 2015 is meaning and noteworthy. However, the reality is that beef consumption remains well beneath 65 pounds per capita, which was final observed in 2007.

For 2021, consumption is estimated to be slightly lower than in 2020, downwards 0.4 pounds per capita year over year.

Effigy two. Per Capita U.South. Beef Consumption, 1970 – 2021f. Data Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

U.S. Pork Consumption – Mostly Flat

Overall, pork consumption has been generally apartment at 50 pounds per capita over the last fifty years (Figure 3). At 52 pounds in 2020, forecasted consumption is expected to increment 0.v pounds in 2021. Pork consumption has non been above 52 pounds per capita since 1999. Furthermore, consumption is considerably above the 2011 lows of 45.7 pounds.

Effigy 3. Per Capita U.S. Pork Consumption, 1970 – 2021f. Data Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

U.S. Poultry Consumption – A Dramatic Increase

The decades-long trend toward more poultry consumption is well known. At less than l pounds in the early 1970s, poultry consumption is forecasted at 113 pounds in 2021. Broadly speaking, the trend is dramatically different from declining per capita consumption in beef and stable consumption of pork.

In the 1970s, poultry accounted for less than 25% of the total U.S. meat consumption. Since 2014, however, poultry has accounted for a bulk.

Figure four. Per Capita U.S. Total Poultry Consumption, 1970 – 2018f. Data Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

Wrapping information technology Up – Meat Consumption Afterward the Pandemic

Three primary observations are worth keeping in mind. Showtime, U.S. consumption varies significantly depending on the blazon of meat. While total consumption is increasing, it has been largely driven past an increase in poultry consumption to offset the reject in beef and holding blueprint for pork. Of course, these data don't reflect changes in overall consumer need or total consumption. In 1970, the U.S. had an estimated population of 205 meg, compared to 331 million in 2020.

2nd, given all the turmoil and doubt in 2020, meat consumption has been fairly steady and looks to remain so in 2021. For all 3 categories, consumption in 2021 is currently forecasted to be within 0.i pounds of 2019 levels. This was not the example during the Not bad Recession when beef (-4.2 pounds per capita) and poultry (-5.ix pounds per capita) contracted sharply from 2007 to 2009. These forecasts will be important to monitor in the coming months.

Finally, ane lesson to go on in mind from the Peachy Recession is the duration and magnitude of adjustments. Thinking about the current reality, one must wonder if the impacts of COVID and 2020 will also linger for years to come.

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Source: https://aei.ag/2021/04/05/u-s-meat-consumption-trends-beef-pork-poultry-pandemic/

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